Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.107385 0.121438 0.136640 0.154307 0.174279 0.196162 0.221966
2025-12-28 0.087547 0.106413 0.128326 0.155669 0.188894 0.227988 0.277532
2026-01-04 0.070706 0.091771 0.117876 0.152628 0.197731 0.254369 0.331038
2026-01-11 0.058895 0.081278 0.110747 0.152430 0.209973 0.286778 0.397389
2026-01-18 0.050226 0.073428 0.105767 0.154196 0.225056 0.325239 0.478207
2026-01-25 0.040902 0.063121 0.095788 0.147405 0.227174 0.346224 0.538301
2026-02-01 0.033212 0.053930 0.085959 0.139192 0.225811 0.361857 0.593088
2026-02-08 0.027840 0.047432 0.079196 0.134575 0.229193 0.385169 0.663697
2026-02-15 0.023393 0.041708 0.072764 0.129415 0.230785 0.405725 0.733098
2026-02-22 0.020890 0.038894 0.070757 0.131445 0.244937 0.449558 0.850024
2026-03-01 0.017886 0.034691 0.065657 0.127099 0.246899 0.472030 0.931751
2026-03-08 0.015584 0.031429 0.061772 0.124370 0.251390 0.499724 1.027849
2026-03-15 0.013581 0.028490 0.058179 0.121895 0.256515 0.530490 1.137675
2026-03-22 0.012404 0.027036 0.057296 0.124779 0.273067 0.586866 1.310783
2026-03-29 0.011019 0.024918 0.054726 0.123702 0.281108 0.626960 1.456292
2026-04-05 0.009978 0.023382 0.053158 0.124573 0.293633 0.678885 1.638079
2026-04-12 0.009163 0.022225 0.052251 0.126807 0.309693 0.741464 1.856448
2026-04-19 0.007976 0.019995 0.048539 0.121805 0.307748 0.761854 1.976244
2026-04-26 0.006875 0.017790 0.044541 0.115439 0.301380 0.770574 2.068442
2026-05-03 0.006077 0.016219 0.041845 0.111916 0.301663 0.795969 2.209131
2026-05-10 0.005355 0.014726 0.039115 0.107850 0.299839 0.815676 2.338323
2026-05-17 0.004987 0.014125 0.038612 0.109707 0.314450 0.881575 2.609309
2026-05-24 0.004437 0.012927 0.036320 0.106207 0.313463 0.904581 2.760849